The prestige of the BJP and the respective state Chief Ministers is at stake in the upcoming by-elections in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. While by-elections are usually seen as a test of the state government’s reputation, recent developments in both states have drawn nationwide attention to these seats. This is particularly true for the Bankipur by-election in Bihar, where the manner in which the BJP changed its candidate within 24 hours has raised several questions.
The party initially had Abhishek Kumar Sinha file his nomination, only for him to withdraw it within a day, citing personal reasons. Following Abhishek’s withdrawal, the party fielded Neeraj Kumar Sinha. This seat fell vacant after the resignation of the incumbent, Nitin Nabin, following his election to the Rajya Sabha. Although considered a BJP stronghold, the turn of events regarding this seat has come as a surprise.
Abhishek’s father had reportedly surfaced in the Fodder Scam and had even been convicted. This would have provided the Opposition with a major issue to target the BJP; hence, Abhishek was dropped. What is surprising is how the party made such a significant oversight regarding a seat vacated by a senior leader. Notably, Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary began his political career with the RJD and would likely have been aware of these details; the ticket was presumably awarded based on his recommendation. This sequence of events has raised questions regarding the BJP’s strategists.
The seat had already become a focal point following the announcement that Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraaj Party would contest the election. This marks the first time Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor has entered the electoral fray as a candidate. The RJD has fielded Rekha Gupta.
While Kishor had fielded candidates from his party in the previous Assembly elections, his party had faced a crushing defeat. A victory in this three-way contest would strengthen Kishor’s standing, but winning will not be easy. Not only will Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary exert his full strength, but the BJP, too, will leave no stone unturned—especially since the election has become a matter of prestige for Nitin Nabin as well.
The RJD will not receive any support from its INDIA alliance partners, and Tejashwi Yadav will have to wage this battle alone, attempting to increase his vote share. The contest will essentially be a face-off between the BJP and Prashant Kishor. Voting is scheduled for July 30, and the results will be declared on August 3.
Meanwhile, the situation in Madhya Pradesh’s Datia constituency has also become interesting. The party has sprung a surprise by denying a ticket to veteran leader and former Home Minister Narottam Mishra. This decision has heated up the political atmosphere within the state BJP, prompting Mishra’s supporters to take to the streets—a rare sight for a party like the BJP.
It is worth noting that Congress’s Rajendra Bharti had previously caused an upset by defeating Narottam Mishra in the Assembly elections for this seat. However, Bharti was forced to resign after being sentenced to three years in prison following a conviction in a case. It is due to Bharti’s resignation that a by-election is scheduled here for July 30.
Mishra had been actively preparing for the election ever since Bharti stepped down. He has held sway over this seat for more than a decade and a half. Given his stature, he fully expected to secure the ticket; there was even speculation that had he won the 2023 Assembly elections, he could have become the Chief Minister. He is considered a close associate of Union Home Minister Amit Shah. This move is being viewed as a warning signal for other veteran and senior leaders while potentially serving as a boost for Chief Minister Mohan Yadav. According to sources, senior state leaders—including ministers Prahlad Patel and Kailash Vijayvargiya, as well as Speaker Narendra Singh Tomar—had wanted Mishra to receive the ticket, but that did not happen.
The reasons being circulated for the denial of the ticket are not entirely convincing. It is being claimed that the party’s central unit conducted a survey of the Datia seat, which revealed strong anti-incumbency sentiment against Mishra, leading to the decision to drop him. On the other hand, observers believe the party deliberately denied Mishra the ticket to prevent the number of potential challengers to Chief Minister Yadav from increasing. Mishra is regarded as an astute and assertive leader, yet the party’s treatment of him has been unfavourable following his defeat.
Earlier, there had been expectations that he would get a Lok Sabha ticket. Then there was talk of him being appointed state president, but that did not happen either. Furthermore, he was denied an opportunity in the Rajya Sabha elections. These signs suggested he was unlikely to get the ticket for the by-election, and that is exactly what happened.
Being denied the ticket has raised questions about Mishra’s political future, though it is seen as a major relief for Chief Minister Yadav. It has been over two and a half years since Yadav became Chief Minister. While there have not been many questions regarding his tenure so far, the Opposition has consistently fuelled speculation about his replacement amid allegations of corruption.
Amid escalating dissent in favour of Mishra, the party high command has summoned him to Delhi, even though Mishra himself has maintained silence so far. Monday is the last date for filing nominations, and it remains to be seen what stance Mishra adopts. There is also talk that the party might persuade him and potentially bring him into the central organisation.
Meanwhile, the Congress has not yet announced its candidate. The party is keeping a close watch on Mishra’s next move. Congress leader Rajendra Bharti—who had previously resigned—has sought a ticket for a family member from the party high command. It is expected that the Congress will announce who will step into the fray against Tiwari on July 13.
However, this by-election has become crucial for Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, as a defeat could potentially impact his political career.
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