California, Iowa Primaries Reveal Key 2026 Election Trends/ TezzBuzz/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Morning Edition/ Primary elections across several states offered early clues about the 2026 political landscape. Democrats notched key victories in Iowa and Montana, while a Trump-endorsed candidate lost a high-profile Iowa governor’s race. California’s closely watched contests remain unsettled as officials continue counting ballots.
2026 Primary Elections Quick Looks
- California governor and Los Angeles mayor races remain too close to call.
- Xavier Becerra is positioned to advance in California’s governor contest.
- Karen Bass leads the Los Angeles mayoral race.
- Josh Turek won Iowa’s Democratic Senate primary.
- Trump-backed Randy Feenstra lost Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
- Democrats see new opportunities in Iowa statewide races.
- Montana Democrats nominated Alani Bankhead for Senate.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-backed candidates continue winning primaries.
- South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden faces a runoff challenge.
- Primary results highlight shifting political dynamics ahead of November.
Primary Elections Offer Early Signals For 2026 Campaign Season
A series of primary elections across the country delivered important insights into the political environment heading toward November, revealing both opportunities and challenges for Democrats and Republicans.
While several major races remain undecided, early returns and emerging trends are already shaping expectations for the months ahead.
California Governor Race Remains Competitive
California’s gubernatorial contest remains one of the most closely watched races.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra appears well positioned to secure one of the two spots in the November runoff. Election analysts note that California’s remaining ballots traditionally favor Democratic candidates, potentially strengthening his standing as additional votes are counted.
The battle for the second runoff position remains highly competitive between Republican former television host Steve Hilton and Democratic businessman Tom Steyer.
With approximately 56% of votes counted, Hilton led with 27.8%, followed by Becerra at 25.4% and Steyer at 19.6%.
Los Angeles Mayor Contest Still Unsettled
In Los Angeles, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass advanced to the November runoff after leading initial vote counts.
However, the race for the second runoff spot remains unresolved.
Reality television personality Spencer Pratt initially appeared positioned to advance, but later vote updates showed progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman steadily gaining ground.
Given California’s tendency toward more Democratic results as later ballots are counted, election observers caution that the outcome remains uncertain.
Iowa Democrats Rally Behind Josh Turek
One of the clearest results of the night came in Iowa’s Democratic Senate primary.
State Representative Josh Turek secured a decisive victory over State Senator Zach Wahls, winning by roughly 25 percentage points.
The race drew national attention after Democratic-aligned groups invested heavily on Turek’s behalf.
Turek now advances to face Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in the general election.
Although Republicans remain favored in Iowa, Democrats hope concerns about tariffs and economic issues could make the contest more competitive than expected.
Trump-Endorsed Candidate Suffers Iowa Defeat
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the evening came in Iowa’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
Representative Randy Feenstra, who received a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, narrowly lost to businessman Zach Lahn.
The result marked the first statewide loss for a Trump-endorsed candidate during the 2026 cycle.
Lahn will now face Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand in a race Democrats believe may offer a stronger opportunity than Iowa’s Senate contest.
The outcome also demonstrated that while Trump’s endorsements remain influential, they do not guarantee victory.
Montana Race Draws New Attention
Democrats also received encouraging news in Montana.
Little-known candidate Alani Bankhead won the Democratic Senate nomination, creating a potentially unusual general election dynamic.
Some strategists had hoped independent candidate Seth Bodnar could emerge as the primary challenger to Republican candidate Kurt Alme.
Whether Bankhead remains fully engaged in the race or cooperates with broader anti-Republican efforts could determine Montana’s competitiveness later this year.
Ocasio-Cortez Continues To Build Influence
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez continued to demonstrate growing influence within Democratic primaries.
Several candidates she endorsed scored victories, including:
- Adam Hamawy in New Jersey’s 12th District.
- Sam Forstag in Montana’s 1st District.
- Randy Villegas in California’s 22nd District, where he currently leads.
The results add to a growing list of successful candidates backed by the New York congresswoman during the 2026 cycle.
South Dakota Governor Forced Into Runoff
In South Dakota, Governor Larry Rhoden failed to secure enough support to avoid a runoff election.
Businessman Toby Doeden finished first in the Republican primary, while Rhoden claimed second place ahead of Representative Dusty Johnson.
Because no candidate reached the state’s required threshold, the top two finishers will advance to a July 28 runoff.
The result represents another challenge for South Dakota Republicans following the turbulent political aftermath of former Governor Kristi Noem leaving office.
What The Results Mean
The primary results suggest several important themes are emerging ahead of November:
As additional votes are counted and runoff elections unfold, these early results will help define the political landscape heading into the next phase of the 2026 election cycle.
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