New Delhi. A deal worth about 9 billion US dollars between India and Germany is going to be signed in the next few weeks. In this, six diesel-electric submarines will be purchased from Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). These submarines will be built with technology transfer at Mazgaon Dock in Mumbai.
This will be India's biggest arms deal so far, although a possible $34 billion deal for 114 Rafale jets from France could be even bigger. This deal, named Project 75i, was in the pipeline for more than 20 years. TKMS made a better offer in terms of price and technology transfer, leaving behind companies from Russia, South Korea, France and Spain.
The condition of the Indian Navy's conventional submarine fleet is worrying. Most of the SSK submarines are more than 25 years old. The 30-year submarine construction plan, started in 1999, had a target of 24 conventional submarines, but so far only six have been received.
India has built Arihant class nuclear submarines itself, but due to lack of experience in designing conventional submarines, it is dependent on only a few countries. As a result, the cost of a 3000 tonne conventional submarine becomes the same as that of an indigenous 7000 tonne nuclear submarine.
Efficiency and technology advantages
TKMS will provide a larger version of the Type-214 design to the Indian Navy. It will have a hydrogen fuel cell based Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, which will almost double its ability to stay underwater. These submarines will be able to attack enemy ships and merchant ships with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles. Will be able to conduct area-denial missions in the Indian Ocean. Land-attack cruise missiles will be able to carry out precise attacks on coastal targets.
The Navy has had good experience with the HDW (now TKMS) Type-209 submarines purchased in the 1980s, which are still in service. The delivery of the first ship is expected after seven years, i.e. in the early 2030s. There is also an option to buy three more submarines in the deal.
For Germany, this deal is part of the strategy to reduce India's dependence on Russian arms. In the 2024 Focus on India paper, Berlin had clearly said that it wants to make India more dependent on German arms companies. But arms deals are political decisions.
Germany did not supply MP5 submachine guns to India for two decades because the alliance partners feared human rights violations. During the Cold War, the same Germany gave production lines of G3 rifle and MP5 to Pakistan.
The deal of six submarines will tie India to Germany for at least four decades. In future, a German government may consider India close to Russia and withhold spares or support, or may even sell submarines to Türkiye and Pakistan. Government-to-government deals provide some protection, but not enough.
Therefore, India should buy stake in TKMS through a DPSU like Mazgaon Dock. With this, New Delhi will be able to get a voice within the company. The German government decides on a stake of more than 5 percent, so this will be an opportunity for Berlin to prove its partnership.
Possibility of India-Israel-Germany cooperation
With this deal, both India and Israel will operate German designed submarines. Israel's Dolphin class submarines are also made of TKMS. Both countries can cooperate in spares pooling, maintenance and AIP development. India-Israel relations are strategic.
Israel had helped in the Kargil war and in recent years India also provided drones and ammunition to Israel. United Arab Emirates can also be included in this cooperation. In this way, it can become not just an arms deal but a cooperation with a shared strategic vision.