Democrats Regaining Latino Support Ahead of 2026 Midterms, New Polls Show/ TezzBuzz/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ Two national polls show Latino voters favoring Democrats ahead of the midterms, reversing some of President Donald Trump’s gains in 2024. Frustration over living costs and immigration enforcement is contributing to the shift, with Latino men showing a particularly pronounced change. The findings complicate Republican electoral plans, although turnout uncertainty and weak Democratic favorability leave the outcome unsettled.
Quick Look
- Congressional preference: An NBC News/Telemundo poll finds Latino voters favor Democratic control of Congress 59%–35%.
- Second poll: CBS News/YouGov finds Hispanic likely voters prefer Democratic House candidates 60%–39%.
- Latino men: NBC reports a 53%–39% preference for Democratic congressional control after Trump won Latino men in 2024.
- Economic dissatisfaction: Nearly two-thirds say their income is falling behind living costs, and 78% disapprove of Trump’s handling of affordability.
- Immigration backlash: Some 67% say Trump’s immigration enforcement has gone too far.
- Turnout concerns: Immigration enforcement fears could discourage some voters from casting ballots in person.
- Party image: Democrats’ standing remains weak, but Republican favorability has deteriorated more sharply.
Deep Look
Latino Voters Move Toward Democrats Ahead of Midterms
Latino voters who helped drive President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory are moving back toward Democrats, according to two new national polls.
The shift challenges Republican expectations that Trump’s gains would provide a durable foundation for the party’s 2026 strategy.
Those expectations helped shape newly drawn congressional districts in Texas and Florida. A reversal in Latino support could complicate Republican efforts in competitive House races.
However, Democrats have not regained all the support they lost among Latino voters over the past decade.
National Polls Show Clear Democratic Advantage
The NBC News/Telemundo survey found that Latino voters preferred Democratic control of Congress by 59%–35%.
That 24-percentage-point advantage is twice the margin recorded by the same poll in 2024.
A separate CBS News/YouGov survey found a similar pattern, with Hispanic likely voters favoring Democratic House candidates 60%–39%.
Together, the findings indicate that Republicans’ recent progress with Latino voters faces a significant test in the midterm elections.
Latino Men Show Particularly Sharp Political Shift
The changing preferences of Latino men illustrate the scale of the movement.
According to Edison National Election Pool exit polling, Hillary Clinton won Latino men by 31 percentage points in 2016. Joe Biden carried them by 23 points in 2020.
In 2024, Trump won Latino men by 10 points, marking a major Republican breakthrough.
The new NBC poll now finds Latino men preferring Democratic congressional control 53%–39%, a 14-point Democratic advantage.
The survey also finds that roughly one in seven Latino voters who say they supported Trump in 2024 now want Democrats to control Congress.
A majority of Latino voters say their congressional vote will serve as a signal against the president.
Cost-of-Living Frustration Changes Who Voters Blame
Economic pressure remains widespread among Latino voters, but political responsibility for that pressure appears to have shifted.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents in the NBC poll say their income is not keeping pace with the cost of living, almost unchanged from 2024.
Nowhowever, 78% disapprove of Trump’s handling of living costs.
Democrats hold a 21-point advantage on handling the economy. In NBC’s 2024 survey, Trump held a 4-point edge over Kamala Harris on that issue.
Although the comparisons involve different electoral choices, the results point to a substantial change in whom Latino voters trust to address economic concerns.
Deportation Campaign Generates Backlash and Personal Concerns
Trump’s immigration enforcement agenda is another source of dissatisfaction.
The NBC poll finds that 67% of Latino voters believe his enforcement efforts have gone too far.
For many respondents, the issue extends beyond policy preferences into daily life.
Some 31% say they or someone close to them now carries identification because of concerns about Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Another 27% say they know someone who has been detained or deported.
Those findings suggest that the enforcement campaign is affecting voters’ families and social networks as well as their political views.
Turnout Could Determine Whether Polling Shift Becomes Electoral Change
Polling preferences a month before an election do not establish who will ultimately cast a ballot.
Pew Research Center’s analysis found that Trump’s Hispanic gains in 2024 were driven largely by changes in who participated in the election, rather than Biden voters switching their support to Trump.
That makes turnout a central uncertainty for both parties this year.
In the NBC survey, 17% of voters say they or someone close to them is considering avoiding in-person voting because of immigration enforcement fears.
Such concerns could affect whether the Democratic advantage measured in surveys translates into votes.
Democrats Gain Ground Despite Weak Party Image
The movement toward Democratic candidates does not mean Latino voters have become substantially more positive about the Democratic Party.
Its net favorability has declined by one point since 2024. The Republican Party’s net favorability, however, has fallen by 18 points.
In 2016, 55% of Latino voters viewed Democrats positively and 24% negatively, producing a net positive rating of 31 points.
Today, 41% hold a positive view and 42% a negative view.
Republicans retain some longer-term gains. Positive views of the GOP have risen from 16% in 2016 to 27% today.
At the same time, negative views have increased from 57% to 62%.
The figures show that Democrats’ current electoral advantage coexists with dissatisfaction toward both parties.
Key Races Put Latino Electorate in Focus
Both parties are competing for a large and growing Latino electorate in important races across Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.
The central question is whether Republicans can preserve enough of Trump’s 2024 coalition—or whether economic dissatisfaction and immigration backlash will drive a stronger Democratic performance.
Turnout will be crucial in determining the effect of that shift on control of Congress.
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