MetMalaysia Deputy Director-General of Operations Ambun Dindang said that the weather phenomenon is expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, bringing below-average rainfall to much of the country, The Star reported.
If these dry conditions persist into the new year, temperatures in northern and central Peninsular Malaysia could spike to between 39 C and 40 C, Dindang noted during a media briefing.
The sun sets behind the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 12, 2023. Photo by Reuters |
“At this stage, El Niño has already developed, but a Super El Niño is expected to manifest around November 2026 and continue until January 2027,” he said during a joint briefing with the National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) regarding government preparedness for the Southwest Monsoon, as quoted by The Malaysian Reserve.
The phenomenon is expected to drive up temperatures while cutting rainfall by a sharp 40% to 60% in some states, Reuters reported.
The agricultural sector is already bracing for impact. During a government meeting in June, Minister of Economy Akmal Nasir warned that El Niño could slash Malaysian crop yields by an average of 8% to 10% this year.
The dry spell also elevates regional environmental risks.
The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) last month issued a rare “red” warning in its 2026 Haze Outlook report, signaling a high risk of severe transboundary haze affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
This marks only the second time the institute has deployed its highest-risk rating since the annual outlook launched in 2019, following a similar alert during the 2023 dry season. The report flagged August and September as the peak danger period for transboundary haze, driven by the hot, dry conditions of the intensifying El Niño.
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