Assembly elections are to be held in a total of 7 states in the year 2027. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) governments are in 5 out of these 7 states. The incidents that took place in the last 2-3 months have pushed the BJP, which was on a high note after forming the government in West Bengal, on the back foot. Earlier, BJP was forced to accept the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan due to the students' agitation, now it is facing reservation, caste census and opposition from its staunch supporters. Even if in hushed tones, questions from loved ones regarding paper leaks, condition of schools and poor systems have now started troubling BJP too. In such a situation, BJP seems to be in trouble before next year's elections.
Next year, assembly elections are to be held in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Gujarat, Goa, Manipur and Himachal Pradesh. Of these, the issue of reservation can be very important in the remaining five states except Manipur and Goa. This issue can be decisive in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh. This is the reason why BJP seems trapped and is avoiding any kind of reaction. At the same time, the opposition wants to bring BJP to the edge of this double-edged sword by any means so that it can be defeated in the elections.
BJP seems to be stuck on the issue of reservation
It is believed that about one-third of the population in UP is OBC. At the same time, the population of Scheduled Caste people is about 20 percent. Similarly, in states like Gujarat, Punjab and Goa, the population of these two communities is around 50 percent. As per the strength of the assembly, the voters of these two communities are decisive and in a state like UP, its effect is also visible in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
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Recently, the kind of words spoken by the people who came to protest against reservation at Jantar Mantar in Delhi have given more strength to the opposition. UP Deputy CM Brijesh Pathak met a protesting youth and also said that he will arrange a meeting with the Union Minister. Now the opposition is presenting it in such a way that an attempt is being made to end reservation.
People from upper castes who oppose reservation have traditionally been voters of BJP. At the same time, by working hard in the last 12 years, BJP has included non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav SC castes with itself. Leaders like Nishad Party in UP and Chirag Paswan in Bihar are already winking at BJP. In such a situation, BJP is neither able to say anything for its traditional voters nor is it able to give any clarification on reservation.
Census also became a problem
In response to a question by Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had said that caste-wise census is being conducted from this time onwards. Now after the release of 40 questions of the census, the opposition has cornered the BJP on this issue. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi have written a letter to PM Modi and said that questions like Telangana and Bihar will be included. The opposition says that there is no mention of 'backward class' in these questions.
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The opposition is raising this issue vigorously and there is every possibility that this question may become more acute in states like UP and Gujarat. This is also a cause of trouble for BJP. Actually, the counting of castes in the census is very complicated. In this, the data of different castes and sub-castes is different. For example, if a caste comes under backward class in one state, the same caste also comes under SP somewhere else. Similarly, the data of some castes is not clear. In such a situation, even if the government's move seems technically correct, it may get stuck politically.
opposition from loved ones
The BJP, which has a strong majority from 2014 till now, has never come under pressure even from its allies. However, the protests over the UGC issue, CJP's protest and Dharmendra Pradhan's resignation have changed a lot. Now even its allies are eyeing BJP. Recently, BJP's alliance partners in UP have met separately and demanded more seats. Chirag Paswan is also openly speaking on the issue of reservation that no one can remove reservation. His brother-in-law and MP Arun Bharti had even criticized UP CM Brijesh Pathak by name.
Apart from this, the upper caste community seems to be very angry with BJP. First, this class is most vocal regarding UGC guidelines and now reservation. Ultimatums are being given again and again and demands like reviewing the reservation, implementing reservation on economic basis or abolishing the reservation are being raised. Apart from this, issues like poor condition of schools, ethanol blending and paper leaks are also creating an atmosphere against the government.
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The matter of concern for BJP is that all these things are coming together just before the elections. On the other hand, against Congress in Uttarakhand, SP-Congress alliance in UP, Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab and other opposition parties, BJP is not able to create sharp narrative like before and it seems to be stuck on many issues.
In such a situation, it will be important to see whether BJP is able to solve these issues till these elections or not. If these issues remain a problem for it till the elections, then it is possible that BJP may face a similar fate in many states as it happened in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections and it may even lose power in some states.