By: The Obnews Editorial Team.
Canada’s latest contact with Washington has exposed the central difficulty facing its exporters: an eventual trade agreement may still leave significant tariffs in place. As International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu meets American and international counterparts, the approaching Canada–India negotiating round offers another avenue for expanding business, but its value will depend on the market access negotiators actually secure.
Sidhu and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke informally on Wednesday, September 30, during the G20 trade ministers’ gathering in Milwaukee. Reporting on Thursday confirmed the conversation, while Greer described outstanding bilateral issues as “quite difficult to resolve” and said the administration was “not inclined to go to zero tariffs.” Greer also said technical discussions continue and that his principal Canadian negotiating contact remains Canada–U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, with whom he speaks frequently, according to The Canadian Press.
The significance is therefore more limited than a formal negotiating breakthrough. The meeting kept a channel open, but the public account offered exporters no new tariff schedule, implementation date or agreed package of concessions. For businesses deciding whether to hire, buy equipment or quote a long-term contract, those details determine whether diplomatic movement becomes commercial certainty.
Greer’s position is consistent with the broader message his office brought to Milwaukee. In its official account of his September 30 opening remarks, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative presented tariffs and bilateral agreements as complementary instruments for strengthening American production and supply chains. The agenda also covered industrial overcapacity, forced labour, food trade and changes to the World Trade Organization’s most-favoured-nation principle. These are Washington’s stated policy objectives, rather than an independent assessment that its policies have delivered the claimed benefits.
The commercial implication is that Canada faces a negotiation over the conditions of access to the American market, with no assurance that Washington intends to restore the previous terms. A tariff reduction, a product exemption and the removal of a tariff altogether would produce very different outcomes for the same exporter. Businesses will need to examine the treatment of their own goods rather than assume that a future announcement of a deal settles every sector’s difficulties.
That distinction is especially relevant to manufacturing. A company can retain an American customer while losing much of the profit on each order if the parties renegotiate prices to absorb new border costs. Another supplier may lose a contract entirely if its customer changes sourcing. These are possible business responses, not findings about any individual Canadian firm, but they explain why a diplomatic photograph provides little basis for revising a factory’s operating budget.
Canada’s Trade Commissioner Service currently advises exporters to check product classifications, tariff information and CUSMA compliance. Its guidance says compliant goods may be exempt from certain American tariffs, making the word “certain” consequential. Eligibility, product coverage and the legal basis of a particular duty all matter; a general claim that every Canadian export receives identical treatment can obscure the actual exposure of a business. tradecommissioner.gc.ca
Against that uncertainty, Monday, October 5, becomes an important date for Canada’s diversification effort. Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has announced that the fifth negotiating round for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, or CEPA, will begin that day. Both governments are pursuing a conclusion to negotiations by the end of 2026, although a negotiating target does not establish when any resulting agreement would enter into force.
The current process has a broader foundation than this week’s American dispute. Ottawa’s official CEPA page records the leaders’ agreement to launch negotiations in November 2025, while Prime Minister Mark Carney’s March 2026 visit to India produced the signing of the negotiating terms of reference and a wider partnership agenda. Global Affairs Canada confirmed in September that four rounds had been completed. Those milestones show sustained political engagement, while the agreement itself remains under negotiation. international.gc.ca
The diplomatic repair also carries particular sensitivities for the diaspora. Relations deteriorated after Canadian authorities alleged links between Indian government agents and the 2023 killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, allegations India denied. Associated Press reporting places the renewed trade effort within that wider attempt to rebuild relations. Commercial engagement and questions about security and accountability remain distinct issues, and Canadian communities will judge the relationship through more than its trade totals.
Ottawa has set an ambition of increasing annual two-way trade with India to C$70 billion by 2030. That figure should be understood as a policy objective, not a forecast of revenue guaranteed by a treaty. Reaching it would require actual purchases, investments, competitive suppliers and the infrastructure to move goods and deliver services; the agreement could improve the conditions for those transactions without creating the transactions by itself. Canada.ca
Energy demonstrates how the relationship extends beyond a discussion of import duties. During Carney’s March visit, the governments welcomed a C$2.6 billion agreement involving Cameco to supply nearly 22 million pounds of uranium to India between 2027 and 2035. They also announced cooperation involving liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, critical minerals and other energy technologies. These are specific commercial and policy initiatives alongside the CEPA process, with their own timelines and requirements. Prime Minister of Canada
There is also a near-term business calendar. Sidhu is scheduled to lead a Team Canada Trade Mission to Mumbai and Bengaluru from October 12 to 17. The published priority sectors include aerospace and space, clean technologies and energy transition, information and communications technologies, life sciences, forestry and wood products, and agri-food. The mission’s announced programme includes business briefings, industry visits and meetings between eligible companies, illustrating the practical work needed to convert ministerial engagement into buyer relationships. Tradecommissioner.gc.ca
Canada’s published negotiating objectives provide a useful guide to what exporters should watch. Ottawa wants lower tariff and non-tariff barriers, clearer origin rules, more predictable customs procedures, improved access for services and provisions addressing digital trade. It also seeks cooperation on regulatory obstacles. These are Canadian objectives at the negotiating table; they should not be described as concessions India has already accepted. international.gc.ca
The distinction between goods and services matters for diaspora businesses. For a hypothetical food exporter, success might turn on the tariff for a particular product, inspection requirements and the time spent clearing a shipment. For a software company, the relevant questions might concern contractual access, regulation and delivering support to customers. An agreement’s usefulness must therefore be assessed against a company’s actual business model, even when both firms are selling into the same country.
Ottawa’s objectives also contain clear boundaries. Canada says it will protect supply management for dairy, poultry and eggs without providing additional market access in those sectors. Proposals concerning temporary movement of business people are directed at trade and investment activity; they do not establish a new general entitlement to permanent residence. Similarly, a goal of facilitating professional services should not be treated as automatic recognition of every foreign qualification. international.gc.ca
For South Asian Canadian entrepreneurs, established relationships, language skills and familiarity with particular Indian regions can help identify customers and understand their needs. That is a potential commercial advantage, rather than a guarantee of a successful export venture. A trusted introduction still needs to be followed by a viable price, a reliable distribution arrangement, appropriate product approvals and a clear understanding of payment and delivery responsibilities.
The Trade Commissioner Service’s India guidance reinforces that practical approach. It identifies substantial opportunities but also a complex regulatory environment, regional differences and changing market conditions. Its advice emphasizes research, local partnerships and a long-term commitment. For a smaller Canadian firm, that means selecting a specific market and credible partner can be more useful than treating India’s entire population as an immediately accessible customer base. Tradecommissioner.gc.ca
Consider a hypothetical Canadian producer comparing a familiar American buyer with a prospective Indian distributor. A lower Indian tariff could improve the second offer, yet shipping time, distributor margins, packaging changes and payment terms could still determine which sale is more profitable. The purpose of diversification is to build additional viable business relationships; an exporter gains little from replacing concentration in one market with an unprofitable dependence on another.
India, meanwhile, is pursuing its own negotiations with Washington. Reuters reported Thursday that Greer described a U.S.–India deal as not imminent, despite continuing work to address identified disagreements. That is a separate negotiating process. Progress between Ottawa and New Delhi cannot be read as proof that India has abandoned the American market, or that difficulties in one set of talks automatically produce concessions in the other.
The same discipline should shape expectations of Monday’s round. Meaningful progress would involve clearer treatment of products and services, fewer unresolved issues and a credible path toward an agreed text. Businesses should watch for concrete information about coverage, exclusions, transition periods and implementation, while recognizing that negotiators may keep sensitive details confidential until a package is ready.
For diaspora exporters, the immediate opportunity is to prepare a precise account of the barriers they face and the customers they could realistically serve. Identifying the relevant product code, regulatory approval, service restriction or distribution problem gives trade officials something more useful than a general request for easier access. It also helps a business evaluate an eventual agreement without relying on its headline alone.
Sidhu’s encounter with Greer and the next India round belong to the same Canadian challenge: preserving important existing trade while creating more choices for the future. The strongest measure of success will be whether Canadian companies can secure customers on terms that support investment, employment and sustainable profit. Monday’s negotiations will provide another test of how much of that ambition can be translated into an enforceable agreement.