Trump Holds Rally in Kansas as High Farm Costs Threaten Republican Turnout/ TezzBuzz/ WASHINGTON/ J. Mansour/ President Donald Trump heads to Kansas on Monday as rising fuel costs, trade uncertainty and shrinking farm profits threaten Republican enthusiasm before the midterms. Republicans are investing heavily in Senate contests across agricultural states, including Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton. Farm leaders say economic frustrations may discourage turnout even among producers who remain reluctant to vote Democratic.
Quick Look
- Kansas appearance: Trump is scheduled to speak Monday at 6 p.m. Central, or 7 p.m. Eastern.
- Competitive Senate race: Republican Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state without a Democratic Senate victory in 94 years.
- Diesel pressure: The national average reached $6.30 a gallon Friday, more than 70% above a year earlier.
- Farm income outlook: USDA forecasts net farm income will fall 2.6% as production expenses rise 4.5%.
- Turnout concerns: Farm leaders warn dissatisfaction could reduce Republican participation.
- Regional stakes: Republicans are also spending heavily in Nebraska and defending competitive races in Iowa.
Deep Look
Trump Visits Kansas as Farm Frustrations Complicate GOP Campaigns
President Donald Trump travels to Kansas on Monday as economic pressure on farmers raises concerns about Republican turnout in states the party has long dominated.
Trump is scheduled to speak at 6 p.m. Central, or 7 p.m. Eastern. He will visit Iowa on Thursday as part of his effort to energize supporters before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
For Kansas farmers, the campaign’s closing weeks coincide with harvest season, when machinery, crop transportation and livestock movements require substantial amounts of fuel.
Glenn Brunkow, a fifth-generation farmer and president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, calls this period “go time.”
This year, however, diesel costs more than $2.50 per gallon above its price a year earlier, adding to uncertainty over markets, production expenses and profits.
“It seems like it’s coming at us from all directions,” Brunkow said.
Kansas Senate Race Highlights Republican Turnout Risks
Republicans are pouring resources into Senate campaigns in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa amid concerns about voter enthusiasm.
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a difficult challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, despite Trump carrying the state by 16 percentage points against Kamala Harris in 2024.
Democrats have not won a Kansas Senate election in 94 years.
The Kansas Farm Bureau endorsed Marshall, but Brunkow said he has repeatedly been asked whether frustration could persuade Republican farmers to support Democrats.
“I don’t think it necessarily does that,” he said. “But I think it dampens the enthusiasm for agriculture producers to get to the polls.”
Some Republican Voters Consider Alternatives
Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, said dissatisfaction extends beyond agriculture and includes voters who have repeatedly supported Trump.
He said farmers recognize the damage tariffs have caused their businesses and are frustrated by the Iran war.
Immigration enforcement has also raised concerns after recent raids in western Kansas resulted in more than 100 detentions.
“We need a secure border — we can all agree on that,” Hineman said. “But we also need workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need.”
Hineman said warnings that electing Democrats would strengthen the party’s liberal wing no longer persuade some Republicans, including him.
“I am tired of being persuaded by charges that the boogeyman is going to get us,” he said. “I am so fed up with the Republican Party and their willingness to play sycophant to our current commander in chief that I’m willing to consider alternatives.”
Undecided Voter Points to Health Care and Trade Costs
Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, said Hamilton made a positive impression when he visited a local market to speak with residents. She said she had not seen Marshall make a similar visit.
Although she has never voted Democratic, Geneva remains undecided about the Senate contest.
“I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my entire life, so that’s a little scary for me to be undecided,” she said. “I told one of my friends that, and they can’t believe it, but that’s just the way I feel right now.”
She cited rising health care costs and everyday expenses among her concerns.
“And then of course the trade agreements,” she added. “The Republicans haven’t done the Midwest any favors with that.”
Diesel and Other Production Costs Squeeze Farmers
Farmers have faced months of higher expenses for diesel, fertilizer and seed, with refinery constraints and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war contributing to the pressure.
According to AAA, diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide Friday, more than 70% higher than a year earlier.
Harvest season makes that increase particularly difficult because farmers rely on fuel-intensive machinery and transportation.
“This is a time of year when we use a lot of fuel, and there just isn’t much we can do,” Brunkow said. “The margins are tight, and anything that cuts into that margin really hurts.”
The Agriculture Department’s September forecast projects a 2.6% decline in net farm income this year alongside a 4.5% increase in production expenses.
Fuel and oil expenses alone are expected to rise nearly 30%.
Trump’s Relief Measures Have Not Erased Dissatisfaction
Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order easing restrictions on the tax-free use of red-dyed diesel. He said the change would save “millions” for farmers.
The administration also announced a $12 billion farm aid package in December.
Those measures have not eliminated frustration among producers who expected a stronger financial outlook under Trump.
Brunkow said many farmers “thought it would be better,” although he believes most would still view Trump as the better option in the 2024 election.
“He’s made some unforced errors,” Brunkow said. “Miscalculations, bad advice, that had unintended consequences.”
Iowa and Nebraska Reflect Wider Agricultural Discontent
Trump’s Thursday trip to Iowa comes as Republicans defend competitive races for governor and Senate in another major agricultural state.
He has won Iowa in three consecutive presidential elections, but farm economics have become a significant campaign issue.
In Nebraska, Senate Republicans have committed nearly $15 million to the contest between Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn.
That spending is unprecedented for a state Trump carried by 20 percentage points in 2024.
David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, said his organization has monitored agriculture-heavy states since summer and recognizes the risk of lower enthusiasm.
The group is spending millions to support Republican candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and other states.
“Farmers are squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs,” McIntosh said. “The economic environment has not been good.”
Tester Warns of Deepening Family Farm Strain
Democrats see an opening in those frustrations, including in states where statewide victories have been difficult.
Former Montana Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat who lost reelection in 2024said there is “no doubt” Democrats will outperform expectations in agricultural states.
“These guys got to pay bills at the end of the month, and for a number of months now it’s been hard to do,” Tester said. “This is way beyond politics.”
A third-generation farmer who began farming in 1978, Tester compared current conditions with the farm crisis of the 1980s, when “a fair number of my neighbors left town.”
“We’re setting up for the same kind of situation,” he said. “The economics in family farm production agriculture right now are probably worse right now than they were in the 1980s.”
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