The re-polling in West Bengal’s Falta Assembly constituency on Thursday (May 21) has acquired significance far beyond a single seat. The contest is emerging as an early test of who could become the ruling BJP’s principal challenger in state politics.
Its outcome is particularly significant because it could determine whether the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which was humbled in the April elections, can retain relevance after the BJP’s sweeping victory.
Also read: The battle after victory: Suvendu targets Abhishek’s turf as Falta goes to repoll
The Election Commission (EC) ordered a complete re-polling in Falta, cancelling the voting that took place on April 29, following what it claimed was a complete breakdown of the democratic process. All 285 polling stations will vote now on the new date. The counting will be held on Sunday (May 24).
A TMC stronghold
Falta, which was once a Left stronghold, has remained a TMC bastion since 2011.
According to political observers, the result in Falta will have no bearing on the stability of Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari’s government, but the contest could shape the future balance of opposition politics in the state. It would particularly matter if the TMC slips to the third or fourth place in a constituency once considered one of its strongholds.
The re-election in the South 24 Parganas seat has been overshadowed by the dramatic withdrawal of TMC candidate Jahangir Khan, a controversial local strongman long associated with the TMC’s organisational dominance in the area. Khan on Tuesday (May 19) announced he was pulling out of the contest, although his nomination technically remains valid as the deadline for withdrawal had already expired.
His decision came amid intense political pressure and days after Adhikari publicly warned that Khan was “now my responsibility”, a remark widely interpreted by political observers as a direct threat to the former TMC strongman.
Singham versus Pushpa
Khan had fashioned himself after the defiant protagonist of the popular Pushpa film series, played by Allu Arjun. During the election campaign, he repeatedly declared that he would never bend under pressure.
The statement came amid a public tussle with the EC-appointed police observer Ajay Pal Sharma, an Uttar Pradesh-cadre IPS officer known for his tough policing style. Sections of the media had projected Sharma as Singhamafter Bollywood’s popular tough cop character played by Ajay Devgn, adapted from the Tamil film of the same name.
Bengal politics has historically seen rapid shifts after a regime change because local political structures tend to align with the ruling dispensation.
Responding to Sharma’s warnings over alleged voter intimidation in Falta, Khan had declared, “If he is Singham, I am also Pushpa.”
However, in a complete U-turn from his earlier defiance, Khan announced his decision to quit the contest, saying he wanted “peace and development” in Falta. He also cited Adhikari’s promise of a special development package for the constituency.
Also read: Beaten, yet Congress could see green shoots in Mamata-less Bengal
The TMC, however, distanced itself from the move, saying the decision was Khan’s personal one and alleging that several of its workers had faced arrests and intimidation in the constituency since the BJP came to power.
House of cards
For many in Bengal politics, the episode has come to symbolise the speed at which parts of the TMC’s local organisational network appear to be weakening within weeks of losing power after ruling the state for 15 consecutive years.
“There is a clear change in political mood underway in Bengal politics,” said political analyst Debasish Chakrabarti. “The TMC’s political authority rested not only on electoral strength but also on its control over local networks and booth-level organisation. Falta is important because it is showing signs that this structure is weakening much faster than expected after the regime change.”
Another political analyst, Amal Sarkar, said the contest would be closely watched for indications of whether anti-BJP votes were beginning to consolidate behind forces other than the TMC.
“If the TMC performs very poorly in a seat like Falta, it will raise questions over whether it can continue as the principal opposition force,” he said. “The Left and Congress are trying to project that they, rather than the TMC, can now emerge as the main democratic opposition in Bengal.”
Opportunity for Congress, Left?
That argument has been sharpened by the unusually aggressive campaign mounted by the Congress and Left parties, both of which see an opportunity to reclaim political ground lost over the past decade to the TMC.
Subhankar Sarkar, the West Bengal Congress president, appealed to TMC supporters to transfer their votes to Congress candidate Abdur Razzak Molla after Khan withdrew from the contest.
Also read: Why Suvendu’s BJP govt in Bengal can never truly claim Rabindranath Tagore
He said the Grand-Old Party, and not the TMC, could emerge as the BJP’s real challenger in Bengal politics.
The Falta re-poll was necessitated after polling in several booths was cancelled during the assembly election amid allegations of violence and irregularities.
Falta falls under Abhishek LS seat
The constituency falls within the Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha seat represented by Abhishek Banerjee, widely seen as the TMC’s second-most powerful leader after Mamata Banerjee, the former chief minister and the party supremo.
That has further amplified the symbolism surrounding the contest.
The BJP has projected the election as a referendum on what it calls years of political intimidation under TMC rule.
Adhikari, who campaigned aggressively in the constituency, urged voters to hand the BJP a massive victory and said the re-poll would restore “voter rights” in Falta after years of alleged suppression.
The absence of major TMC leaders from the campaign trail has also fuelled speculation about the party’s diminishing confidence in the constituency.
TMC sources further admit in private that the party is struggling to field booth-level agents in several areas for Thursday’s polling, something the analysts described as particularly damaging in Bengal’s intensely cadre-driven electoral system.
‘Not merely about one seat’
“What is happening in Falta is not merely about one seat,” Chakrabarti said. “This is about the post-defeat survival capacity of the TMC’s organisation. Bengal politics has historically seen rapid shifts after a regime change because local political structures tend to align with the ruling dispensation.”
While the analysts cautioned against reading too much into a single re-poll, they nevertheless said the Falta developments have exposed anxieties within the TMC over whether its organisation can survive the pressures of opposition politics.
Also read: Suvendu’s blitzkrieg in first week as CM: Border fencing to bulldozers to RG Kar
The party, however, has publicly insisted that it remains the principal opposition force in the state and accused the BJP government of creating an atmosphere of fear through arrests and police action against its leaders and workers.
Rare opportunity
For the Congress and the Left, the contest offers a rare opportunity to test whether disillusioned anti-BJP voters are willing to shift away from the TMC.
That would make Falta an early indicator of whether Bengal is moving toward a bipolar BJP-versus-Congress/Left contest, or whether the TMC can remain central to the opposition space despite its historic defeat.
For the BJP, it is a chance to demonstrate that the political realignment triggered by its landslide victory is continuing even after the election.
Comments are closed.