El Niño has officially formed over the central equatorial Pacific and is expected to keep strengthening through the second half of 2026, possibly lasting into early 2027, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said at a Ministry of Agriculture and Environment press conference on June 17.
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region rose to 0.5 C above average in May and around 0.7 C in early June, confirming the event has taken hold.
The agency now puts the odds of a very strong El Niño at 60-65%, up from 20% in April and 37% in May.
An event that strong would be comparable to the 2015-2016 El Niño, and possibly stronger, said center director Mai Van Khiem. That event is regarded as one of the strongest since 1950, on par with the major El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.
The economic stakes run straight through the Central Highlands. The agency warned the region faces a shortage of irrigation water for industrial crops, coffee above all, during the 2026-2027 dry season.
Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta supplier, the bean that anchors most instant coffee and espresso blends, and robusta accounts for about 95% of its coffee output, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The timing is what makes it a global market story. Robusta hit multi-decade highs in 2024 and early 2025 after drought hammered crops in rival producers, with London futures topping $5,800 a tonne.
Prices then eased to around $3,470 by April 2026 as traders priced in a record Brazilian harvest and the first global surplus in four years. A severe drought in Vietnam’s coffee belt would undercut that expectation.
Germany, the largest buyer of Vietnamese coffee in the EU, and roasters worldwide would feel any squeeze.
Drought in Lam Dong Province in Vietnam’s Central Highlands in 2020. Photo by Read/Viet Quoc |
Beyond coffee, a very strong El Niño would bring above-average temperatures, fewer cold spells and widespread rainfall deficits, especially in the central region, the Central Highlands and the south.
Average temperatures in the final months of 2026 could run 0.5 to 1.5 C above the long-term norm, with some areas 1 to 2 C higher from October to December.
Rainfall could fall 25-50% short, sharpest along the south-central coast, raising the risk of drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta into early 2027.
The last big El Niño offers a preview. In 2015, heat waves ran up to 32 days in the south-central region, 36 days in the central region and 39 days in the north-central region.
The highest reading, 42.7 C (108.9 F), was logged at Con Cuong in Nghe An Province on May 30 that year.
El Niño years usually bring fewer storms, but the agency cautioned that extremes can still strike. The historic 2015 rainfall in Quang Ninh in the north and the 2009 floods in Quang Nam and Quang Ngai in the central region, which followed Typhoon Ketsana, both happened under active El Niño conditions.
“El Niño doesn’t only raise the risk of heat, drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion; heavy rain, flash floods, landslides and powerful storms can still occur,” said Dang Thanh Mai of the National Hydro-Meteorological Administration.
The Vietnamese forecast tracks with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which issued an El Niño Advisory in early June and put the chance of a very strong event, defined as Pacific sea temperatures more than 2.0 C above average, at 63%.
Some dynamic models suggest 2026 could rival 1997-1998, the most intense El Niño on record by ocean heat.
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