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New political alignments may reshape Opposition unity, intensify vote fragmentation and challenge Rahul Gandhi’s strategy.
The ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ (CJP) has sounded a major alarm for the Congress. Although CJP leaders could not reach Jantar Mantar on Saturday, they are expected to form a political party soon. Their style of politics appears somewhat similar to that of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). For now, they are assessing the political situation. Following the ‘paper leak’ agitation, their efforts during ‘Delhi Movement 2’ successfully conveyed their message across the country. Most importantly, the support the CJP received from Left parties, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the AAP indicates that national politics could gradually move towards the formation of a Third Front.
Former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has previously attempted to form a Third Front. Had his party not lost the Delhi Assembly elections, he might well have succeeded. In that scenario, the TMC and the Samajwadi Party (SP), both currently part of the INDIA bloc, would likely have joined the Third Front. Given the Congress’s weakening position, the CJP is unlikely to miss the opportunity to revive the idea of a Third Front, and Kejriwal could take the initiative. On Saturday, the police detained Kejriwal and other party leaders. It remains to be seen when the Third Front will actually take shape.
The path the Congress is currently following under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership poses little obstacle to the formation of a Third Front. Given the state of the INDIA bloc, its constituent parties would probably not hesitate to align themselves with such an alternative. If this happens, the BJP may face no significant political threat, but the road ahead will become even more difficult for the Congress, as a Third Front could directly encroach upon its vote bank. Dalit, Other Backward Class (OBC) and Muslim votes, in particular, could be split.
Abhijit Dipke, the founder of the ‘Cockroach Janata Party’ (CJP), hails from Maharashtra and has cultivated ties with the Thackeray brothers. Notably, Uddhav Thackeray has also become disillusioned with the Congress. The possibility of external forces being involved in the formation of the CJP cannot be ruled out. These forces had previously placed their bets on TMC leader Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal but failed to weaken Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. On the contrary, both the AAP and the TMC were weakened by their electoral defeats.
The CJP began its journey in student politics. Initially, it appeared that its political activities would remain confined to students and young people. However, following the success of the ‘paper leak’ protests, indications emerged that the organisation intended to enter mainstream politics. Dhruv Rathee, who had previously supported the Congress from abroad by targeting the Modi government, suddenly began harbouring ambitions of forming his own party. Film actor Prakash Raj, a staunch critic of the BJP and a figure considered close to the Left, invited Rathee to Bengaluru and involved him in a CJP demonstration. On Saturday, Rathee, Abhijit Dipke and several other leaders staged a protest at Jantar Mantar to assess their collective strength.
The CJP had centred its agitation on issues such as alleged vote theft and the demand for the removal of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. Although the CJP is currently a non-political organisation and is technically precluded from raising such issues, its leaders are actively working to expand their influence without formally establishing a political party.
One cause for concern for the Congress is that Left-wing leaders took to the streets and courted arrest in response to the CJP’s call. The student wings of Left parties also mobilised openly, appearing far more active on the ground than their Congress counterparts.
Having learnt from the CJP’s previous protests, the central government put robust security measures in place this time and detained protesters before they could reach the demonstration site. Leaders were prevented from even advancing towards Delhi. Rathee was detained in Gurugram, while Abhijit and Ashutosh were detained at the airport. No protester managed to reach Jantar Mantar.
Although the CJP failed to stage the protest itself, it achieved its underlying objective. The organisation is unlikely to remain inactive in the coming days and will certainly seek to align itself with opponents of both the BJP and the Congress.