0
Following the formation of a new team for Uttar Pradesh, the collapse of the Congress party’s alliance with the Samajwadi Party appears almost certain. The Congress has adopted the SP’s “PDA” political strategy by wooing Pandits, Dalits, and Alpsankhyak (minorities) voters, and is thus eyeing the same vote bank for future growth. In the process it is also demanding an impossibly high number of seats from the SP, which is bound to strain the alliance. All this is being seen as a build-up for the Congress to part ways and contest the elections independently, with an eye on the future.
While analysts believe the alliance might still be salvaged at the last minute if Congress secures 100 seats to contest, but the Samajwadi Party’s political stance suggests that an agreement is unlikely. This is because the SP is anticipating that the Congress will break the alliance. Sources reveal that Congress’s internal reports regarding Uttar Pradesh are unfavourable, with its prospects of winning the election—even in alliance with the Samajwadi Party—appearing bleak. Whether the SP contests alone or in alliance, the BJP is likely to secure a majority, say sources.
Consequently, Congress appears to be preparing to contest all seats across the state. Statements by state in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam also indicate that the party is not in the mood for an alliance. By demanding 150 to 200 seats from the SP, Congress is effectively provoking the SP to break the alliance. Meanwhile, Congress is busy expanding its fold in Uttar Pradesh by inducting leaders of all statures; several leaders joined the party on Saturday as well. The party’s strategy is clear: to somehow gather enough leaders to contest 400 seats. Congress had intended to apply the same formula in Bihar, having sensed early on that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav would not have much of an impact.
This is why Rahul Gandhi was initially not in favour of an alliance with the RJD, leading to a delay in the announcement. Sources suggest that Rahul gave his consent only after Sonia Gandhi intervened. Eventually, the Bihar election results played out exactly as predicted, with the BJP-JDU alliance securing a major victory. Uttar Pradesh now appears to be heading down a similar path. Most surveys and opinion polls indicate that the BJP, led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, is poised to form the government. Realising that an alliance would yield no benefits, Congress is attempting to navigate the existing political equations with a new team. It is worth noting that Rajendra Pal Gautam—a staunch opponent of the SP—has been appointed as the in-charge, while Imran Masood has been made working president. Masood is also known for openly opposing the SP and serves as the Muslim face of western Uttar Pradesh.
Aradhana Mishra, daughter of Pramod Tiwari, has been given the opportunity to serve as president of the UP unit. The Brahmin face of the party, Aradhana Mishra is an MLA from Rampur Khas, a seat she has won three times. It is said that Pramod Tiwari maintains very cordial relations with both the SP and the BJP, which is noted as a key reason behind Aradhana’s consistent electoral success. Now that the party has projected her as a key face, it remains to be seen whether the SP and the BJP will field lightweight or strong candidates against her. Nevertheless, Congress has certainly sent a strong message to the Brahmin community with her appointment. According to party sources, Congress may soon organize one or two Brahmin conventions to woo the community.
Umesh Pandit, a senior Congress leader from Mathura and president of the All India Brahmin Vikas Manch, was tasked by in-charge Gautam to engage Brahmin organizations; he has since submitted a report suggesting a Brahmin convention be held under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Four decades ago, Congress used to win elections by relying on Brahmins, Muslims, and Dalits. However, the BJP subsequently won over the Brahmins, while the BSP and SP made inroads into the Muslim vote bank. As for Dalits, the vote has fragmented following the weakening of Mayawati’s influence; Chandrashekhar Azad’s party has begun to garner some votes, but the upcoming election will reveal where the Dalit vote truly goes. In Uttar Pradesh, OBCs constitute the largest demographic at 42%—a segment comprising various castes that largely support the BJP.
Brahmins, Rajputs, and other upper castes make up 19%, while Muslims also account for approximately 19%. Dalits and Scheduled Castes comprise 20-21%. The Samajwadi Party previously practiced “M-Y” (Muslim-Yadav) politics, but for the first time, Akhilesh Yadav is speaking about Brahmins. The “PDA”—originally standing for Pichda (Backward), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (Minority)—has now been redefined by some to stand for Pandit (Brahmin), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak. With Congress going the PDA way, a clash with the SP is inevitable. A narrative is currently being constructed suggesting that Brahmins are disgruntled with CM Yogi, with both SP and Congress eyeing the Brahmin vote bank. However, Congress and the SP are eyeing the same vote banks as that of the BSP. Asaduddin Owaisi too is pursuing a similar strategy. Chandrashekhar Azad too is focusing on Dalits and Muslims. If the Congress’s PDA alliance succeeds in increasing its vote share beyond the 3% it secured last time, the party could harbour hopes for the future in UP. As of now, however, it is not in the race.