New Delhi, 2 November 2026: El Nino, which is rapidly strengthening in the Pacific Ocean, can now create new problems for Indian farmers and rural economy. According to the latest data from the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of El Nino continuing till next February 2027 is almost 100 percent. Due to which there is a risk of extreme temperatures, irregular rainfall patterns and acute water shortage. There is more concern about this matter in India because the area of combined incidents of drought and extreme heat is continuously increasing here.
According to a report, between 1951 and 2016, the geographical area affected by simultaneous occurrences of drought and heatwave in India has increased from 10 percent to 35 percent. That means, in a short period of approximately 65 years, the area vulnerable to such natural calamities has increased three and a half times. This crisis is no longer limited to traditionally dry north-western India, but has also spread to wetter states like Orissa, West Bengal and Assam.
Its direct effects can be seen on agriculture and rural livelihood. In years of such severe conditions, there has been a huge decline of up to 12.1 percent in rice production in the country. Apart from this, even 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature at the time of grain setting in wheat crop can reduce the crop production by 3 to 4 percent.
Why is El Nino more of a problem?
El Nino is a seasonal phenomenon of higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean. Due to which the global weather and rainfall cycle changes. There is a possibility of strengthening of monsoon rainfall in India during El Nino. Although, it is not necessary that there is a drought in India during every El Nino, but this time the risk is greater because there is a possibility of a huge increase in the temperature. When there is less moisture in the soil, evaporation of water decreases and the soil and surrounding air become warmer, which worsens the effects of drought and heat.
Water availability has always been a major challenge in rural India. Under the 'Jal Jeevan Mission' of the Central Government, the work of providing tap water to rural homes has been done on a large scale. When this mission started in August 2019, only 17 percent of rural families had a tap connection, which according to the report of the Jal Shakti Ministry has increased to more than 81 percent by December 2025. However, piped access to homes and getting adequate and pure water on a regular basis are two different things. According to government assessment, 86.5 percent households had functional tap connections, while 80.2 percent households had adequate water supply. However, keeping in mind the possible threat of El Nino, water security planning will have to be done in advance at the rural level.
Why are the above steps necessary?
To meet the future crisis, it is essential to evaluate the current situation of water sources in villages. In Panchayats where there is water shortage, a special 'Water Security Plan' will have to be made keeping in mind the underground water level and annual requirement. It is necessary to revive old lakes, ponds and traditional water sources. In short, a strengthening El Nino is not only a sign of a weak monsoon, but it can pose a major threat to agriculture, groundwater, animal husbandry and rural employment, against which the entire country will have to be prepared in time.