Monsoon to hit Kerala on May 26 – IMD Forecast
Citizens were shocked by the heat waves
Monsoon forecast to arrive six days earlier than usual
Sunayana Sonwane/Pune: While citizens were shocked by heat waves across the country, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has provided comforting information. This year, the Southwest Monsoon is likely to enter Kerala on May 26, and it is predicted to arrive six days earlier than usual. An error of four days is assumed in the forecast. Generally, Southwest Monsoon enters Kerala on 1st June. However, this year Atmospheric As the conditions are favourable, there are indications of an early arrival of Monsoon. The Meteorological Department has expressed the possibility of early arrival of monsoon in Kerala for the second consecutive year. Last year monsoon entered Kerala on May 24.
At present, the flow of south-westerly monsoon winds across the equator has become active over a wide area of the Indian Ocean. At the same time, a prominent low pressure area has formed over the southwest and adjoining Bay of Bengal, due to its influence, widespread rains have been witnessed over coastal areas of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh including Andaman-Nicobar Islands. As the conditions necessary for the arrival of monsoon are being fulfilled rapidly, the ‘IMD’ has predicted that this year’s rainy season will officially begin with the arrival of monsoon in South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman-Nicobar Islands on Saturday.
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India Meteorological Department has developed a sophisticated indigenous statistical model to predict the arrival of monsoon. The model considers six important factors, namely minimum temperature in northwest India, premonsoon precipitation in the southern peninsula, OLR over the South China Sea, winds over the southeast Indian Ocean, OLR over the southwest Pacific, and low-level winds over the northeast Indian Ocean.
Since 2005, ‘IMD’ has been publishing the official forecast of monsoon arrival in Kerala. The department claims that most of the predictions have been accurate in the last 21 years except 2015.
Monsoon Update: Monsoon to enter Kerala between May 25 and 27, ‘Ha’ warning issued for five states
Dates of Monsoon Arrival in Kerala
(Date predicted by ‘IMD’ in brackets)
2025 — May 24 (May 27)
2024 — May 30 (May 31)
2023 — June 8 (June 4)
2022 — May 29 (May 27)
2021 — June 3 (May 31)
2020 — June 1 (June 5)
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