Before the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2027, the discussion about the formation of new political equations in the BJP-led NDA has intensified. Chirag Paswan and Nishant Kumar, two young faces of Bihar politics, are now looking for their political ground in UP. First Union Minister and President of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) Chirag Paswan reached Prayagraj and intensified the election activities. After this, now Nishant Kumar, son of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and minister in Bihar government, has reached Varanasi and taken forward the election campaign of JDU.
The biggest question amid the activism of both the leaders is whether both the parties will contest the elections together with BJP in 2027 and if this happens, how many seats will they get? JDU is eyeing the social base of Kurmi and extremely backward class, while Chirag Paswan's party wants to strengthen its hold among Paswan and non-Jatav Dalit voters. In such a situation, a new political discussion has started within the NDA, from seat distribution to caste equations.
Sudden entry of Nishant Kumar
Bihar Health Minister Nishant Kumar had reached Varanasi on November 1. JDU's state level worker conference was organized here at Ramlila Maidan in Karauta. In this, along with Nishant Kumar, a large number of workers including party's national working president Sanjay Jha, senior Bihar government minister Shravan Kumar, Mohammad Jama Khan and UP JDU state president Anup Singh Patel participated.
Nishant Kumar called upon the workers to start preparing for the 2027 assembly elections and strengthen the organization up to village, panchayat and booth level. He said that JDU wants to expand its organization in Uttar Pradesh and will try to contest the assembly elections as a constituent party of NDA. Nishant also said that he wants to convey the ideology of his father Nitish Kumar and the work done in Bihar to the people of UP. He also supported the ongoing development works in the state under the leadership of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
In which districts JDU is eyeing?
Officials and workers from many districts of Purvanchal participated in the Varanasi conference of JDU. Among them, the district presidents of Varanasi, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra, Jaunpur, Basti and Bhadohi along with the district coordinator of Chandauli were also present. This indicates special attention to be paid to Purvanchal for the organizational expansion of the party. The areas of eastern Uttar Pradesh adjacent to Bihar are politically important for JDU.
Varanasi, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Mirzapur, Sonbhadra and surrounding areas have a good population of Kurmi, Kushwaha and other backward classes. The party wants to strengthen its political identity among these social groups. There is churning going on within JDU regarding seats. There is also talk of claiming 8 to 10 seats, but no such official list has been released by the party yet. National Working President Sanjay Jha has also indicated that senior party leaders are deliberating on the seats and further decisions will be taken.
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Chirag has already staked election claim
Before Nishant Kumar, Union Minister Chirag Paswan has also increased his party's activism in UP. On September 27, he interacted with the youth through the 'Youth Bole' program in Prayagraj. After this, in October he had talked about making organizational preparations for all the 403 assembly seats of UP. Chirag says that his party is getting ready to contest the elections and talks will be held within the NDA regarding the seats.
Chirag's party Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is eyeing increasing its political influence among the Dalit voters of UP, especially the Pasi and non-Jatav communities. The party is also trying to connect the youth. In some media reports in September, there was talk of a possible agreement with BJP on about 10 seats. Although this has not been officially confirmed.
BJP faces the challenge of wooing old allies
The NDA already includes allies like Apna Dal (S), Nishad Party, Subhashpa and RLD. These parties also have claims regarding their respective seats and social base. Now with the activeness of JDU and LJP (Ram Vilas), the discussion of seat sharing within the alliance has become more important. Apna Dal (S) has its base in the Kurmi community. In such a situation, due to the entry of JDU, the claims of both the parties may clash with each other in some areas.
The expansion of Dalit politics of Chirag Paswan's party can also become the subject of new talks amidst the existing social equations of the alliance. BJP will have to decide how to give space to new parties without affecting the share of old allies. The distribution of seats will not have to be done only on the basis of demands of the leaders, but considering the organization, position of the candidates and social equations in the respective areas.
JDU's old election record in UP
JDU's political history in Uttar Pradesh has not been very strong. The party had fielded candidates on 16 seats in the 2002 assembly elections and won two seats. In 2007 also, he contested elections on 16 seats and won one seat. In 2012, the party fielded candidates on 219 seats, but did not get any success. JDU did not contest the UP assembly elections in 2017. Even in 2022, there was no consensus between JDU and BJP regarding seats. After this, JDU fielded its candidates on 27 seats, but could not win even a single seat. In such a situation, the biggest challenge before the party in 2027 will be to surpass its past performance and establish its political stake in the NDA.
Eyes fixed on seat distribution
Both Chirag Paswan and Nishant Kumar have expressed their desire to contest elections with NDA. But despite the political activism of both, no final agreement on seats with BJP has been made public yet. There is talk of Chirag's party potentially claiming up to 10 seats, while JDU is also in talks to increase its stake.
In such a situation, BJP faces a double challenge. On one hand, it has to take care of the demands of its old allies, and on the other hand, it has to give place to new allies also in the alliance. If both JDU and LJP (Ram Vilas) contest elections with NDA, then the equation of alliance seats in Purvanchal, Awadh and Dalit dominated areas may have to be decided afresh.
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New political stir within NDA before 2027
The activism of Chirag Paswan and Nishant Kumar before the UP assembly elections has created a new political stir within the NDA. On one hand, JDU wants to expand in UP due to Nitish Kumar's political legacy, while on the other hand, Chirag Paswan is trying to strengthen his party outside Bihar. UP elections are a big opportunity for political expansion for both.
Now it remains to be seen how many seats BJP agrees to give to both the parties and how it maintains a balance with the already existing allies. Will JDU and LJP (Ram Vilas) get shares in different areas or will the tussle within the alliance increase over seats? Only the seat sharing talks of NDA before the 2027 elections will clear the real picture of this new political equation.