Sea-surface temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific have reportedly touched 30°C, drawing attention to a strengthening El Nino event and its potential consequences for weather patterns across the world, including India.
A report in India Today on Saturday (October 24) highlighted the reported temperature milestone, linking it to the developing El Nino and concerns over the country’s rainfall and temperature outlook.
The reading, however, refers to the temperature of surface waters in a particular part of the Pacific and should not be interpreted as the temperature of the entire ocean.
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The development comes amid signs of a strong El Nino, a climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The warming affects atmospheric circulation and can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across several regions.
What WMO said
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its new seasonal climate outlook on Wednesday (October 21) that prevailing El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific could be unprecedented in strength.
It said sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may rise 3.8 degrees Celsius above average from November 2026 to January 2027.
The WMO declares an El Nino when the sea surface temperature anomaly in this region is 0.5 degrees Celsius.
In a statement, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades. El Nino will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that.”
What NOAA said about El Nino
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, in its October 8 diagnostic discussion, reported that El Nino conditions were strengthening. Its assessment pointed to substantial warming in the equatorial Pacific and the possibility that the event would remain strong into early 2027.
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“El Nino strengthened further last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.0°C in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Most Niño indices increased in the past month, reaching +2.1°C in Nino-3.4, +3.0°C in Niño-3, and +3.9°C in Nino-1+2,” NOAA said in its El Niño on October 8.
El Nino develops when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific rise above their long-term averages, accompanied by changes in winds and atmospheric circulation. The resulting shifts can influence weather far beyond the Pacific basin.
A crucial distinction is between an absolute sea-surface temperature of 30°C and a temperature anomaly — the difference between the observed temperature and the long-term average. The latter is a key measure used by scientists to assess the intensity of El Nino.
Although tropical Pacific waters can naturally reach temperatures around or above 30°C in some locations, the extent and persistence of unusually warm conditions, together with changes in atmospheric circulation, determine their broader climatic significance.
Why India is watching the Pacific
For India, the principal concern is the potential influence of El Nino on rainfall and temperatures. The phenomenon has historically been associated with an increased risk of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall, although the relationship is not uniform and does not determine the outcome of every monsoon season.
India’s rainfall is also shaped by other factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, regional ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. These can strengthen or offset the effects associated with El Nino.
The report linked the developing event to concerns about India’s 2026 rainfall performance and the temperature outlook for the months ahead. Such projections need to be assessed alongside official forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rather than treated as a direct prediction of conditions in every state.
Above-normal temperatures during the post-monsoon and winter periods could add to pressure on water resources, agriculture and public health. However, the severity and geographical distribution of any impacts will depend on how the climate system evolves.